Ever since Wednesday’s Fed rate hike, and the press conference by Janet Yellen, I’ve been thinking a lot about inflation. I believe the Fed is underestimating how weak inflation really is. I also believe that’s because it’s looking in the wrong places. Or, more to the point, it’s ignoring the weak signals hiding in plain sight. Namely, falling commodity prices. Chart 1 shows the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index falling this week to the lowest level since the spring of 2016. Ms. Yellen may refer to that falling trend as “noise”. To a chart reader, it’s called a downtrend.