Back in July 2014, I made a prediction that 3% NGDP growth was the new normal, as soon as unemployment fell to the natural rate. At the time, that prediction raised some eyebrows. The 12-month NGDP growth rate was running 4.5% in the second quarter of 2014, and rose to about 4.9% in Q3. The Fed’s estimate of the long-term growth trend was considerably higher than 3%, as were private forecasters. But look what’s happened since: