Goldman Sachs tactical views
This FX Views gives our tactical assessment post referendum, meaning opportunities on a one to three month horizon.
First, “divergence” in fundamentals is alive and well, meaning that the US is outperforming – by a large margin – Europe and Japan on activity and inflation. But G-3 central banks are preventing this from feeding into exchange rates, which means that, like in “whack-a-mole,” this should show up in stock market and breakeven inflation outperformance of the US versus Europe and Japan.