As we noted recently, BofAML fears “a depeg of the Saudi riyal is the number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016,” adding that it is “a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk.” Given the recent action in Saudi Riyal forwards – the market’s best guess at where the oil-ruch nation’s currency will trade in the future – the chance of the black swan ‘de-peg’ is its highest since 2002.