On Friday we previewed what we said could be the next European black swan.
In short, elections in Catalonia on Sunday were a proxy for an independence referendum.
The outcome is critical for several reasons, not the least of which are i) Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio could spike to 125% in an independence scenario, ii) Catalonia would likely be forced out of the euro in the event they secede, iii) the impact on social stability is decisively unclear, iv) Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spanish GDP.
Here are the results, tallied amid record turnout.