The Traderszone Network

Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories. One is the story economists tell: The economy can grow forever; energy shortages will have no impact on the economy. We can simply substitute other forms of energy, or do without.

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The three-year rally in housing prices is losing a little steam but should continue for another year or two.

Two days ago we highlighted a new study from the St. Louis Fed where someone had the very prudent idea to strip out loans in deferment and forbearance from the denominator of the student debt delinquency rate equation so everyone could get a better idea of what the real numbers look like. 

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Investors attempting to determine whether U.S. equities will rebound from Friday’s selloff or continue to sink will look to a deluge of earnings next week for a clearer picture of the economy. Equities lost ground after industrials Honeywell International and General Electric took hits from the strong dollar, while concerns over new trading regulations in China and Greece’s place in the euro zone dented sentiment. Investors have grown concerned about the impact of a strong dollar on quarterly results, even as they remain leery of missing out on any rally.

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The Group of 20 leading economies struck a hopeful tone on the outlook for global growth on Friday, even as officials fretted that Athens’ inability to strike a deal with its lenders could upset Europe’s tentative recovery. In a communique after a two-day meeting, G20 finance ministers and central bankers welcomed brighter economic signs in rich nations, but lamented weakness in emerging markets. “Risks to the global economy are more balanced since we last met,” the finance officials said.

Selling followed sharp overseas stocks declines and was broad, with all 10 major S&P 500 sectors losing ground. The Dow and S&P 500 both snapped two weeks of gains. For the week, the Dow was down 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 down 1 percent and the Nasdaq down 1.3 percent. China’s securities regulator warned investors to be cautious as Chinese shares hit seven-year highs.

Greece will need to tap all the remaining cash reserves across its public sector — a total of 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) — to pay civil service wages and pensions at the end of the month, according to finance ministry officials. Barring a last-ditch deal with its creditors, that is likely to leave no money to repay the International Monetary Fund almost 1 billion euros due in the first half of May, although Greece has said it wants to honor its debt obligations.

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