The stock market typically signals a recession long before the trouble is obvious. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the 16-month recession in 1973-74 began in November 1973. However, the Dow Jones industrial average peaked in January 1973, beginning a series of lower lows 10 months before the recession’s technical start. The bear market didn’t hit rock bottom until December 1974 — about 47% off the January 1973 high.