It’s been quite confusing for several reasons, a few of which are discussed below.
Historically, the S&P 500 nearly always struggles during the balance of a calendar year in which January performance is weak. In January 2014, the S&P 500 fell 3.56%, ranking it in the bottom quartile of all Januarys since 1950. That rarely bodes well for equity performance over the next 11 months, yet the S&P 500 has risen in every calendar month since January and is up roughly 200 points and more than 11% since the end of January. History has misled us – at least through June 30th.